Table of forecasts

The table below lists all countries for which there are forecasts. The columns correspond to different outcomes:

• Attempt: any coup attempt, regardless of whether successful or failed.
• Coup: a successful coup that results in overthrow of the government.
• Failed: a failed coup attempt that does not result in overthrow of the government.

The risk values shown are percentages that can theoretically can range from 0% to 100%. These are created from the underlying raw probabilities which range from 0 to 1.

The respective “Rank” columns give a country’s rank on each outcome. The country with the highest risk is ranked 1, and higher rank values correspond to lower risk.

You can download the forecasts here (CSV).