There are several projects that produce public forecasts of different forms of political instability and violence:


Political Violence Early Warning System for Africa by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Research.

Early Warning Project

One-year ahead forecasts for the risk of mass atrocities, including genocide, by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.

Atrocities Forecasting Project

Five-year ahead forecasts (currently covering 2016-2020) for the onset of genocide or politicide campaigns.


One-month and one-year ahead forecasts for the risk of coup attempts, using an approach that draws on the methods we developed for forecasting irregular leadership changes (which include coups; Beger, Dorff, and Ward 2016). By OEF Research.

PART and the Democratic Space Barometer

The Predicting Adverse Regime Transitions and Democratic Space Barometer are two related projects we did with the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg.

PART provides 2-year forecasts (currently covering 2019-2020) for the risk that a country will be more autocratic, using V-Dem’s four-category regimes of the world index.

The Democratic Spaces Barometer produces 2-year forecasts for the probability of substantial improvement or worsening on six different facets of democratic governance.


Democratic Spaces Barometer: