There are several projects that produce public forecasts of different forms of political instability and violence:
Political Violence Early Warning System for Africa by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
One-year ahead forecasts for the risk of mass atrocities, including genocide, by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.
Five-year ahead forecasts (currently covering 2016-2020) for the onset of genocide or politicide campaigns.
One-month and one-year ahead forecasts for the risk of coup attempts, using an approach that draws on the methods we developed for forecasting irregular leadership changes (which include coups; Beger, Dorff, and Ward 2016). By OEF Research.
The Predicting Adverse Regime Transitions and Democratic Space Barometer are two related projects we did with the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg.
PART provides 2-year forecasts (currently covering 2019-2020) for the risk that a country will be more autocratic, using V-Dem’s four-category regimes of the world index.
The Democratic Spaces Barometer produces 2-year forecasts for the probability of substantial improvement or worsening on six different facets of democratic governance.
Democratic Spaces Barometer: www.v-dem.net/en/analysis/DemSpace/