Predictive Heuristics

Predictive Heuristics

Political and social risks exist across the world;
Just like your business.
Our predictive heuristics will help you navigate these risks.


At Predictive Heuristics we use a bevy of state of the art techniques and methodologies to bring you the best in risk analysis and prediction.


We create predictive heuristics that allow you to gauge the global political risk environment for your enterprise. These assessments vary by context and by country, but are based on principled models that employ copious amounts of big data to garner insights.

Who we are

We utilize a wide range of quantitative and qualitative data, coupled with state-of-the-art models to generate quantitative risk estimates on a geographic and temporal scale.


Michael D. Ward is an emeritus professor of Political Science at Duke University, having previously taught at Northwestern University, the University of Colorado, the University of Mend├Ęs-France France, and the University of Washington. He is also the founder and president of Predictive Heuristics, a risk analysis firm. He received an A.B (Honors) from Indiana University and a Ph.D. from Northwestern University. He is the recipient of over two dozen research grants and contracts, spanning a variety of topics related to international peace and commerce in the context of the dependencies among international political and economic actors. He also collaborates with political scientists, economists, network scientists, geographers, ethnographers, and remote sensing specialists to study the dynamics of conflict. He is an elected fellow of the Political Methodology Society. Ward has published a dozen books and more than ten dozen refereed articles in a variety of disciplines and languages.


Sandra L. Ward has a BS from Loyola University, and a MS and Ph. D. from Northwestern University. Her dissertation developed simulation methods for controlling automated chemical processes. She has worked in computer automation at Argonne National Laboratories, She also worked at the Science Center Berlin on methods for social science models of large scale political processes. Subsequently, she developed remote procedure technologies for Burroughs (Unisys) and Netwise. Subsequently, she worked for two decades at Microsoft helping with the SQL engine and applications in transaction processing.


Andreas Beger has a political science Ph.D. from Florida State University. He has worked on conflict forecasting since 2011 and previously also was a Military Intelligence officer in the Florida Army National Guard.

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