Predictive Heuristics

Predictive Heuristics

Political and social risks exist across the world;
Just like your business.
Our predictive heuristics will help you navigate these risks.


At Predictive Heuristics we use a bevy of state of the art techniques and methodologies to bring you the best in risk analysis and prediction.


We create predictive heuristics that allow you to gauge the global political risk environment for your enterprise. These assessments vary by context and by country, but are based on principled models that employ copious amounts of big data to garner insights.

Who we are

We utilize a wide range of quantitative and qualitative data, coupled with state-of-the-art models to generate quantitative risk estimates on a geographic and temporal scale.


Michael D. Ward is one of the leading social scientists focused on prediction of social trends using modern data collection and statistical methods. He has published more than a dozen books as well as over 100 articles in political science, geography, sociology, economics, and statistics. He has been a consultant to governments and corporations over the past decade and was one of the principal scientists for the W-ICEWS project--now a program of record--to provide predictive models of political crises for the U.S. government.


Sandra L. Ward has a BS from Loyola University, and a MS and Ph. D. from Northwestern University. Her dissertation developed simulation methods for controlling automated chemical processes. She has worked in computer automation at Argonne National Laboratories, She also worked at the Science Center Berlin on methods for social science models of large scale political processes. Subsequently, she developed remote procedure technologies for Burroughs (Unisys) and Netwise. Subsequently, she worked for two decades at Microsoft helping with the SQL engine and applications in transaction processing.


Andreas Beger has a political science Ph.D. from Florida State University. He has worked on conflict forecasting since 2011 and previously also was a Military Intelligence officer in the Florida Army National Guard.

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